Iowans are voting Tuesday in an open U.S. Senate race between Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson and Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek, who are competing for the seat held by retiring GOP Sen. Joni Ernst. The state has leaned Republican: Trump won Iowa by 13 points in 2024, and Iowa has not elected a Democratic senator since 2008, according to CNN, which placed the seat on its list of the 11 Senate seats most likely to flip this year. A Hinson win would keep the seat in Republican hands; a Turek win would flip it.
The final public numbers show almost no daylight between the two. A New York Times/Siena College poll of likely voters, conducted Oct. 23 through Nov. 1, found Turek at 48% and Hinson at 47%, Fox News reported, describing the Iowa race as virtually tied. CNN's Poll of Polls average had Turek at 46% and Hinson at 45%. An earlier Fox News poll, conducted Sept. 24-28, gave Turek a 49% to 47% edge among likely voters, well within its margin of error. "Recent history and the state's partisan makeup suggest Hinson can pull this out," GOP pollster Daron Shaw, who works on the Fox News Poll, said at the time. "But the warning signs are clear."
Both candidates have campaigned against a national backdrop. Hinson, who has campaigned alongside President Trump, has worked to distance herself from him on the Iran war, tariffs and beef imports, CNN reported, while still facing voter frustration over the rising cost of diesel, fertilizer and other goods in a farm-dependent state. Democrats outspent Republicans in Iowa by nearly $20 million in October, according to CNN; a top Democratic ad tied Hinson to high gas prices, tariffs and the war with Iran, while Republicans answered with an ad attacking Turek on immigration. In the Fox News poll, 52% of voters said they were concerned Hinson is too close to Trump, while 43% worried Turek's views are too liberal. In the final days, Hinson told Newsmax that "our voters are going to show up strong on Tuesday," while Turek told CNN that Iowa is "a common sense state that is masqueraded as more red than what we actually are."
Prediction markets show the same stalemate. On Kalshi, the contract for a Republican win in Iowa's Senate race, Hinson's chance in traders' eyes, traded at 50.5% as of 11:21 a.m. ET on Nov. 3, while the paired contract for a Democratic win was priced near 50%. The Republican contract traded in the mid-to-high 50s for most of October before slipping in the final week. Those prices reflect what traders were willing to pay, not a forecast, and they settle nothing in a race the latest polls put within a point.
The answer starts to arrive tonight. Iowa's polls are open from 7 a.m. to 8 p.m., according to the ACLU of Iowa's voter guide. The returns will show whether the state's Republican lean holds for Hinson, or whether Turek becomes the first Democrat Iowa has elected to the Senate since 2008.
