Blockade End Announcement Seen as Unlikely by Traders

Markets now price an 89.5% chance the U.S. will not resume offensive operations against Iran by July 31.

Prediction markets now see just a 10.5% probability that the U.S. government will officially announce an end to the naval blockade on Iranian ports and coastal waters before July 31, a sharp drop of 14 percentage points in the past 24 hours. The move reflects a dramatic reversal of expectations following the lifting of the blockade in June under a ceasefire framework, only for President Trump to reinstate it on July 14.

The market’s plunge began after Axios reported on July 13 that the president had ordered the reimposition of a full naval blockade covering the entire Iranian coastline—including all ports and oil terminals—effective the next day, applying to all vessel traffic regardless of flag. This contradicted earlier optimism from a June 17 Reuters report citing Iran’s IRNA news agency that both nations had agreed to lift blockades in the Gulf area under a memorandum of understanding. The U.S. Central Command confirmed on June 18 that American forces had ended their blockade, and a 60-day negotiating window for a broader deal was opened.

With that window still open but no final agreement reached, the reimposition has reset the baseline. Traders are now pricing in a low likelihood that the administration will reverse course again before the market closes on July 31, given that no new official statement or White House briefing has signaled a pending rollback. The $117,122 in trading volume over the past day suggests active positioning by traders who see the recent reimposition as the dominant narrative.

For the market to resolve to “Yes,” a fresh, explicit U.S. announcement ending the blockade—likely from the White House or the Department of Defense—must occur before the deadline. Absent that, the weight of evidence favors the current blockade persisting through the month’s end, making a “No” outcome the more probable scenario as the 60-day negotiating clock continues ticking.