A renewed public call to remove President Donald Trump under the Twenty-Fifth Amendment has put a consequential constitutional question back in view: what would happen if officials declared a president unable to carry out the duties of the office? The call came from Tucker Carlson, a prominent former Trump ally, but public pressure is not evidence that the vice president or Cabinet is considering action. Kalshi traders currently put the chance of Section Four being used before the end of Trump’s presidency at 25% as of 1:53 p.m. ET on Sept. 30. That is a market price, not a forecast or evidence of official intent.
Carlson made his call during an NPR Newsmakers interview, saying Trump should have been removed by his Cabinet after threatening a nuclear attack, according to The Independent. The characterization of Trump’s statements in that account is Carlson’s; the cited material does not independently establish the underlying allegation. A separate report says Carlson suggested Trump may not have been the sole decision-maker in the Iran matter, but offered no evidence for that suggestion. Neither a public demand nor an unsupported suggestion settles whether the constitutional standard for transferring presidential power has been met.
Section Four allows the vice president and a majority of Cabinet secretaries to declare that a president is unable to discharge the duties of the office, according to the cited report. The provision has never been invoked to remove a sitting president. If the president contests a declaration, Congress must decide the matter, and the report describes the provision’s practical application as largely untested. Those features leave open not only whether officials would act, but how a dispute would play out if they did. Section Three, by contrast, has been used for temporary, voluntary transfers of presidential authority for medical procedures; the report cites 1985 as an example of its use.
The market itself offers limited evidence about the likelihood of an official move. Kalshi’s price has been unchanged over the past day and over the week, while the contract recorded 402 contracts traded over the last day in trading over the last day. Its open interest is 71,911 contracts open. Trading activity and open contracts show participation in the market, not that officials are weighing a declaration. The distinction matters: the central uncertainty is what the vice president and Cabinet might do, and the cited reporting does not say they are considering a move. A market price cannot fill that gap in the evidence.
What remains unknown is whether officials believe the constitutional standard applies, whether they would choose to act, and how Congress would respond to a contested declaration. The available reports establish Carlson’s call and describe the amendment’s process; they do not establish that Trump is unable to discharge his duties or that the people empowered to initiate Section Four intend to intervene. For readers, that is the line to keep in view: a striking demand has renewed debate about an untested constitutional mechanism, but it has not shown that the mechanism is about to be used.
