Politics / 1 MIN READ
The House-passed digital asset bill remains in Senate limbo with no signing in 2026 yet.
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© 2026 Prediction Market Network. Market data references Polymarket and Kalshi and may change rapidly.
Prediction markets on July 26, 2026, price a 35.5% probability that the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, known as the CLARITY Act, will be signed into law before the year ends. The implied odds have edged up three points over the past 24 hours on $82,044 in volume, but the bill has not reached the president's desk. No official enactment record exists on Congress.gov, and contemporary news coverage continues to describe the legislation as pending.
The House passed H.R. 3633 on July 17, 2025, but the Senate has not yet held a floor vote. The Senate Banking Committee approved the bill 15-9 on May 14, 2026, according to CNBC, clearing a key procedural hurdle. However, the full Senate must still pass its version, and differences with the House bill would require reconciliation before any signing can occur. The CLARITY Act would grant the Commodity Futures Trading Commission exclusive jurisdiction over digital commodity spot markets while preserving Securities and Exchange Commission authority over investment contract assets.
The GENIUS Act, a separate stablecoin-focused bill, was signed into law on July 18, 2025, demonstrating that crypto legislation can complete the full legislative process. But the CLARITY Act follows a different procedural path with broader scope. Reuters reported on March 31, 2026, that the bill was still moving through Congress as proposed legislation, not enacted law. Industry trackers from Latham & Watkins and Galaxy Research continue to list the CLARITY Act as pending after committee action.
With the market set to close on Jan. 1, 2027, traders are weighing whether the Senate can schedule a vote in the remaining months of the 119th Congress. The 35.5% probability reflects uncertainty about floor time and bipartisan support, not a completed signing. No source in the public record reports a presidential signing of the CLARITY Act as of this date.