Elon Musk Tweet Market Holds 44.5% on 180-199 Range

Sony confirmed the final figure on Monday, making the film the highest-grossing domestic opening weekend of all time.

Polymarket bettors now price a 44.5% chance that Elon Musk will post between 180 and 199 times on X during the seven-day window from July 31 to August 7, a probability that surged 15 points in the last 24 hours. The market, which counts only main feed posts, quote posts, and reposts — excluding replies — closes at 4:00 PM ET on August 7, leaving just over two days of counting remaining. The sharp move suggests traders are reacting to early data points and recalibrating based on observed posting volume.

Musk posted 62 times on July 31 alone, according to a third-party tracker, a clip that would extrapolate to roughly 434 posts over a full week — well above the 180-199 range. Yet the implied probability of that specific bucket has climbed, indicating that traders expect a sharp deceleration in posting frequency as the period continues. The leading buckets in Polymarket's range market, which offers multiple outcomes, show 180-199 at 18%, with 200-219 and 220-239 both at 17%, suggesting a cluster of bets around the 180-240 zone.

The counting methodology adds a layer of complexity. Only posts that appear on Musk's main feed timeline — including reposts and quote posts — count toward the total, while replies do not. This distinction can create gaps between casual tallies and the official count used for market resolution. The primary real-time reference for bettors is the live tracker MuskSense, which updates throughout the day and provides the most reliable snapshot of Musk's current post count.

With the window nearly closed and two days of intense engagement possible, the probability could swing further if Musk accelerates or retreats from the platform. The 44.5% figure reflects a market that sees the 180-199 range as a plausible outcome but acknowledges the wide variance in Musk's posting habits. For now, the live tracker remains the single best gauge of where the count stands as the resolution approaches.