The Federal Open Market Committee meets on September 15-16, 2026, to set the target federal funds rate, with the outcome hanging on the latest inflation and labor data. The July meeting ended with a decision to hold the rate steady, though the vote was divided, reflecting persistent price pressures.
Inflation data released on August 13, 2026, showed the Consumer Price Index rising 3.4% year-over-year in July, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. That reading, above the Fed's 2% target, reinforces the argument for maintaining a restrictive stance and gives policymakers a fresh data point ahead of their decision.
The July FOMC statement noted that inflation remains elevated and that the committee would continue to assess incoming data. CNN reported that three officials dissented in favor of a quarter-point rate hike, highlighting internal disagreement about the pace of tightening needed to bring inflation down.
Market pricing places the probability of no change after the September meeting at 70.5%, according to Polymarket data, with 24-hour volume of $454,635. The next key input will be the August CPI report, which could shift expectations ahead of the FOMC's final decision.
