Economy / 1 MIN READ
Prediction markets now assign just 28 percent odds to crude reaching $95 before August, down sharply from yesterday's pricing.
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Current live odds
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?
Economy / 1 MIN READ
NewPrediction markets now price a 25 percent chance of a quarter-point increase at next week's July meeting.
Economy / 2 MIN READ
Earlier this weekPolymarket traders sharply repriced monetary policy odds overnight, diverging from Wall Street consensus that rates will hold through year-end.
Economy / 2 MIN READ
Earlier this weekPrediction markets now assign 73 percent odds that WTI crude will touch $90 before month-end despite trading near $79.
© 2026 Prediction Market Network. Market data references Polymarket and Kalshi and may change rapidly.
West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures settled at $72.27 per barrel on July 25, leaving traders skeptical that prices will climb to $95 before the end of the month. Prediction markets now assign a 28 percent probability to WTI touching that threshold in July, down 24 percentage points in the past 24 hours as geopolitical risk premiums evaporated and spot prices drifted lower.
WTI opened July at $70.56 per barrel and has traded in a narrow band between $69.60 and the low $70s throughout the month, according to data from SigmaNomics and Investing.com. The contract would need to rally more than $22 per barrel in the final six days of July to resolve in favor of bulls who wagered on a $95 high. Front-month September futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange closed at $72.08 on Thursday, reflecting muted expectations for an imminent supply shock despite ongoing tensions in the Strait of Hormuz.
Bank of America commodity strategist Francisco Blanch described the oil market as "exceptionally constrained" even as futures curves have flattened, pointing to structural tightness in refining capacity and OPEC+ production discipline. Yet physical crude markets have shown little sign of the acute shortages that would drive a 30 percent price spike in less than a week. Daily settlement data from ICE and CME exchanges confirm no intraday high has breached $73 so far this month, leaving the $95 target nearly $23 away with limited trading sessions remaining.
The Polymarket contract, which has drawn more than $102,000 in 24-hour volume, closes at 03:59 UTC on August 1. Traders who bought "Yes" shares earlier in the week have watched implied odds collapse as crude failed to sustain momentum above $72. Analysts note that absent a major supply disruption—such as a complete closure of Middle Eastern export terminals or a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico—the path to $95 would require demand fundamentals or speculative positioning far stronger than current market conditions suggest.