Economy / 1 MIN READ
Prediction markets now price a better-than-even chance that West Texas Intermediate will touch $90 before July ends.
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Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?
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Traders on decentralized prediction platforms are pricing a 55 percent probability that West Texas Intermediate crude will reach an intraday high of $90 before July expires, up nearly 20 percentage points in the past 24 hours as geopolitical risk premiums resurface. The market, which attracted $129,719 in volume over the same period, closes at the start of August and hinges on whether a brief supply squeeze can push WTI through the threshold in the next two weeks.
The bullish case rests on heightened US-Iran tensions that have reduced crude flows through the Middle East and tightened global supplies, according to Barchart data on the July 2026 WTI contract. Francisco Blanch of Bank of America told CNBC that the oil market remains "exceptionally constrained" despite lower prices in the futures curve, underscoring the supply-side pressure that could drive a short-term spike. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps struck a US radar installation in Kuwait this week, while US forces targeted bridges near Bandar Abbas, escalating the standoff that has already disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Yet the path to $90 faces headwinds from a stronger dollar and profit-taking that pulled crude and gasoline prices lower on Thursday, Barchart reported. The available August 2026 WTI quotes show the front-month contract trading well below the $90 mark, and no exchange settlement record in the research brief confirms that July has already printed a $90 high. The market is being pulled by opposing forces: geopolitical supply risk on one side and macroeconomic dollar strength on the other.
With fewer than 14 days remaining in July, the question turns on whether a single intraday print can breach $90 amid volatile conditions. The prediction market's sharp one-day move suggests traders believe the supply narrative will dominate in the near term, but the lack of a confirmed spike so far leaves the outcome uncertain. Any resolution will hinge on real-time exchange data rather than month-end settlement prices, making the next two weeks critical for both energy hedgers and speculative positions.