Sports / 1 MIN READ
Bayern winger's goal probability drops to 15 percent as traders reassess France's attacking rotation and his wide-playmaker role.
Market data
Current live odds
Will Michael Olise score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Sports / 1 MIN READ
NewPrediction markets price near-zero probability for Three Lions reaching July 19 final after 54-point overnight drop despite unbeaten qualifying campaign.
Sports / 1 MIN READ
NewPolymarket traders now price Spain's World Cup victory at 58 percent after semifinal win, far above pre-tournament forecasts.
Sports / 2 MIN READ
NewTraders sharply downgraded the probability that Fox announcers will mention a hat trick during the July 19 championship broadcast at MetLife Stadium.
© 2026 Prediction Market Network. Market data references Polymarket and Kalshi and may change rapidly.
Prediction markets now price Michael Olise's chances of scoring at the 2026 FIFA World Cup at 15 percent, down 21 percentage points in the past 24 hours on trading volume exceeding $89,000. The sharp move reflects growing trader skepticism about the Bayern Munich winger's ability to find the net despite his expected inclusion in France's squad for the tournament, which kicked off last month.
Olise, a 24-year-old attacking midfielder born in England who represents France at senior level, is listed as a forward in preliminary World Cup coverage but operates primarily as a chance creator from wide positions at club level. France opened their Group I campaign against Senegal in New York on June 16, and the expanded 48-team format offers more matches than previous tournaments—yet traders appear to doubt whether Olise will secure enough central minutes or finishing opportunities to score. His reputation as a provider rather than a poacher may be weighing on sentiment, particularly in a deep French attacking roster that includes more natural goal scorers.
The 15 percent probability suggests markets view Olise as a plausible but far-from-certain scorer, consistent with historical patterns for wide playmakers at major tournaments. Uncertainty around his starting role, fitness through the knockout rounds, and France's tactical setup all contribute to the bearish repricing. The Polymarket contract remains open until July 20, giving traders five more days to adjust positions as France's group stage concludes and rotation patterns become clearer.
Olise joined Bayern Munich ahead of the current season after establishing himself as a creative force in the Premier League, contributing goals and assists from attacking midfield and wing positions. His technical skill and versatility earned him a place in Didier Deschamps' squad, but the same attributes that make him valuable as a creator may limit his pure goal-scoring opportunities compared to strikers operating closer to goal. With France still alive in the tournament, the market will continue to reflect both his on-field minutes and the tactical decisions that determine whether he shoots or supplies.