PMN Daily Video Brief: Prediction Markets Diverge From Live Data

Traders now price just 0.05 percent odds that OpenAI's next GPT model will debut scoring 1460 or higher by year-end.

Watch today's Prediction Market Network video brief above.

Musk Tweet Tracker Defies Market Odds — Live trackers show Elon Musk on pace for 263 tweets this week, but prediction markets give just 47 percent odds he'll exceed 219 posts. Someone's math isn't mathing—and traders are betting it's the tracker. Full story: https://www.predictionmarketnetwork.com/article/musk-tweet-forecast-diverges-from-live-tracker-data-279101-20260712

Wall Street Divided on Fed'S Next Move — Major banks can't agree whether the Fed will hike or cut rates by mid-2027, with markets pricing just 11 percent odds of a tightening cycle. The consensus is there is no consensus. Full story: https://www.predictionmarketnetwork.com/article/wall-street-split-on-fed-policy-as-hike-probability-holds-kxfedd-20260712

Fed Outlook Splits Forecasters — Our daily video brief covers three stories moving prediction markets yesterday, including the Fed policy divide that has Wall Street analysts talking past each other. Markets price 60 percent odds on the base case scenario. Full story: https://www.predictionmarketnetwork.com/article/pmn-daily-video-brief-fed-policy-outlook-splits-wall-street--288031-20260714