Sports / 1 MIN READ
Prediction markets give France almost no chance of upsetting Spain in today's World Cup semifinal at AT&T Stadium in Dallas.
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Will Spain be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup?
Sports / 2 MIN READ
NewPolymarket traders assign just 0.05 percent odds to a Spanish exit against France in today's Dallas semifinal clash.
Sports / 2 MIN READ
NewTraders price near-certainty for Spain's World Cup final berth despite tonight's semi-final against France remaining unplayed in Dallas.
Sports / 2 MIN READ
NewCrypto prediction market diverges sharply from regulated sportsbooks pricing Les Bleus as tournament favorites ahead of semifinal.
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Prediction markets assign just 0.05 percent odds to Spain's elimination in today's World Cup semifinal against France, down 59 points in the past 24 hours on $58,575 in trading volume. The market now effectively prices Spain's advancement to Sunday's final as a certainty, despite France's own strong tournament performance. The semifinal kicks off at 3 p.m. ET at AT&T Stadium in Dallas, with the winner advancing to face either England or Argentina in the July 19 final at MetLife Stadium.
Spain reached the semifinals with a 2-1 victory over Belgium in Los Angeles, capping a group stage that included a 4-0 demolition of Saudi Arabia and a 1-0 win over Uruguay. France's path to the final four has been similarly dominant, setting up a clash between two of the tournament's most consistent sides. The other semifinal, England versus Argentina, takes place Wednesday in Atlanta. Both matches represent Spain's first appearance in the World Cup semifinals since the nation's lone tournament victory in 2010.
The market's near-zero probability reflects overwhelming trader confidence in Spain's superiority, though the single-elimination format leaves no margin for error. A French upset would resolve the market in favor of elimination, while any Spanish victory—whether in regulation, extra time, or penalties—would confirm the consensus view. The 24-hour price collapse from 59 percent to 0.05 percent suggests late information flow or sharp repositioning by large traders ahead of kickoff.
The final is scheduled for July 19 at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey, with the winner claiming the sport's most prestigious trophy. Spain has never lost a World Cup semifinal, having won its only previous appearance at this stage en route to the 2010 title. Today's match represents the first meeting between Spain and France in World Cup knockout play since 2006, when France prevailed 3-1 in the round of 16.