Spider-Man: Brand New Day RT Score Volatile at 13%

Early reviews place the film in the low 90s, but prediction markets see only a 13% chance the score settles above a key threshold.

88% NOLive oddsAt publish 87% NOSynced recentlyKALSHINewBy Prediction DeskThursday, July 30, 2026

Market data

88% NO

Current live odds

Spider-Man: Brand New Day Rotten Tomatoes score?

SourceKALSHI

Volume$158K

At publish87% NO

Move since publish-1.0pp

ClosesAug 3, 2026

Synced5m ago

Open market on KALSHI

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Prediction markets now price a 13% probability that Spider-Man: Brand New Day achieves a specific Rotten Tomatoes score, reflecting deep uncertainty after the review embargo lifted on July 28. Early critic scores from Forbes, RadioTimes, and Yahoo ranged between 89% and 92% fresh, based on review counts that varied from 94 to 152. The market's implied probability has dropped 30 points in the last 24 hours, with $74,433 in volume traded as traders reassess the film's critical reception against a still-evolving review total.

The volatility stems from conflicting early snapshots. Forbes reported a 92% fresh score shortly after the embargo, while RadioTimes pegged the film at 90% from 143 reviews. Yahoo later published a 91% figure based on 152 reviews, then a separate report showed 89% from just 94 reviews. The Rotten Tomatoes page itself listed zero reviews and zero verified ratings in one captured snapshot, indicating the platform had not fully updated. The Critics Consensus, Audience Summary, and Popcornmeter had not been released as of the initial coverage.

One Forbes analysis noted that if the score settles around 90%, it would be the lowest-rated Spider-Man film in the recent trilogy. The market's 13% probability suggests traders expect the final score to fall short of a higher benchmark, possibly the 95% threshold implied by the market question. The discrepancy between early critic enthusiasm and market skepticism highlights the challenge of predicting a final score when review counts are still climbing and audience scores remain unpublished.

As more reviews are added in the coming days, the score may converge toward a stable figure. The market closes on August 3, leaving a narrow window for new data to shift the probability. For now, the 13% price reflects a bet that the early momentum will not hold, even as initial critic reception suggests a strong debut.