The prediction market for the Rotten Tomatoes score of "Super Troopers 3" is pricing in a middling critical reception, with Kalshi traders giving a 66.5% probability that the film's Tomatometer will land at 32% or lower. The market, which resolves on the Monday after the film's wide release at 10:00 AM ET, reflects early skepticism about the third installment of the cult comedy franchise. As of August 6, 2026, the Rotten Tomatoes page for the film shows zero reviews and zero verified ratings, leaving traders to rely on early sentiment signals.
A Reddit review thread from around the film's release date reported a 31% positive rating from 16 reviews, with 0% among top critics. This aligns closely with the market's implied threshold, suggesting that early audience reactions are not breaking in the film's favor. The original "Super Troopers" holds a 37% Tomatometer and a 90% Popcornmeter, while its sequel, "Super Troopers 2," sits at 35% Tomatometer and 64% Popcornmeter. The franchise has historically struggled with critics but maintained a strong fan base, a dynamic that appears to be repeating.
The market's 66.5% probability implies that traders view a sub-32% score as the most likely outcome, though the absence of official reviews leaves room for volatility. If the Tomatometer opens above 32%, the contract would resolve at zero, creating a binary risk for holders. The 24-hour volume of $2,124 suggests limited but active interest, with the price moving up 35 points in the last day, indicating a slight shift toward the lower score scenario.
For context, the franchise's critical trajectory has been flat, with both prior films scoring in the mid-30s. A repeat of that pattern would keep the score above the 32% threshold, but the early Reddit data suggests a potential dip. Traders will watch for the first official reviews, which could swing the market sharply. The resolution mechanism, tied to Rotten Tomatoes' published score at a specific time, adds a layer of precision to the binary outcome.
