President Trump told Axios on July 23 that he is "close" to a decision on launching a "massive attack" against Iran, bigger than the previous Operation Epic Fury, to stop Iranian attacks on commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz. The interview marked the first direct statement from the president on the scope of potential new military action.
The U.S. has been escalating operations over the last 12 days, since approximately July 11, to counter Iranian attacks on commercial vessels in the critical waterway. Oil prices have exceeded $100 per barrel as a result of the ongoing disruption, according to the Axios report. The Strait of Hormuz is a chokepoint for about one-fifth of global oil supply.
In a sign that the conflict is widening, Iran-backed Houthi rebels have begun attacking Saudi ships in the Red Sea, threatening another key oil shipping route. The Red Sea escalation adds a second maritime front to the broader U.S.-Iran confrontation, which has already disrupted global shipping and energy markets.
IMF Portwatch, the designated resolution source for whether Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31, publishes daily transit calls for the waterway. The pre-February 2026 average was roughly 100 daily passages, though current traffic data has not been publicly cited in available reporting. The market for a return to normal by the end of July is trading at a very low probability (1.05%), reflecting deep skepticism that traffic will recover amid the threat of further strikes.
The next catalyst will be whether Trump makes a final decision on the attack, which would likely drive further disruption, or whether a diplomatic breakthrough emerges. The IMF Portwatch data release showing a 7-day moving average above 60 transit calls would signal a return to normal.
