Live market ticker. Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?: 60 percent; Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?: 60 percent; Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?: 57 percent; Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?: 28 percent; Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 350m?: 71 percent