Live market ticker. Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?: 63 percent; Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?: 65 percent; Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?: 60 percent; Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?: 29 percent; Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?: 26 percent