Live market ticker. Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?: 79 percent; Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?: 69 percent; Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?: 60 percent; Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?: 30 percent; Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 350m?: 79 percent