Live market ticker. Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?: 60 percent; Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?: 80 percent; Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?: 69 percent; Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?: 33 percent; US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?: 32 percent