California at SMU

Saturday, October 24 · 12:00 PM ET · Saturday early game

COLLEGE FOOTBALL · SATURDAY EARLY GAMEACC GAME

AWAYCaliforniaGolden Bears10%chance to win · Polymarket 10.5% · Kalshi 9.5%

atKICKS OFFIN 2 DAYSSat 12:00 PM ET

HOMESMUMustangs90%chance to win · Polymarket 89.5% · Kalshi 90.5%

Favorite: SMU, 90%Spread: SMU −18.5Total: 55.5The sites are 1.0 pts apart

The two sites nearly agree

Polymarket and Kalshi are within 1 point of each other on every line they both price live. The biggest difference is on the chance to win.

MARKET	POLYMARKET	KALSHI	DIFFERENCE
To winChance SMU wins	89.5%	90.5%	1.0 pts
Spread: SMU −18.5Chance SMU wins by 19 or more	51%	—	—
Total: 55.5 pointsChance of 56 or more points combined	50%	—	—

SMU rose from 83.5% to 89.5% on Polymarket since Oct 13, peaking at 91%. Polymarket has 89.5% and Kalshi 90.5% now.

SMU Mustangs: chance to winPolymarketKalshiEach site's price as the sports room checked it

80%85%90%95%Oct 14Oct 16Oct 18Oct 20Oct 22Polymarket 89.5%Kalshi 90.5%

Both teams play in the ACC, so this game counts toward the conference title.

TEAM	Make the playoff	Win the ACC	Win the national title
CaliforniaGolden Bears	3.8%P 3.8 · K 2*	0.3%P 0.3 · K 1*	1%P — · K 1*
SMUMustangs	12%P 11 · K 13	5%P 4 · K 6	1%P — · K 1*

* Last trade only: that site has no live price right now, so it is left out of the average. A number in gray comes from last trades alone.