Duke at Virginia

Friday, October 23 · 7:00 PM ET · Friday night game

COLLEGE FOOTBALL · FRIDAY NIGHT GAMEACC GAME

AWAYDukeBlue Devils45.7%chance to win · Polymarket 46% · Kalshi 45.5%

atKICKS OFFIN 1 DAYFri 7:00 PM ET

HOMEVirginiaCavaliers54.3%chance to win · Polymarket 54% · Kalshi 54.5%

Favorite: Virginia, 54.3%Spread: Virginia −1.5Total: 47.5The sites are 0.5 pts apart

The two sites nearly agree

Polymarket and Kalshi are within 1 point of each other on every line here. The biggest difference is on the spread.

MARKET	POLYMARKET	KALSHI	DIFFERENCE
To winChance Virginia wins	54%	54.5%	0.5 pts
Spread: Virginia −1.5Chance Virginia wins by 2 or more	50.5%	51.5%	1.0 pts
Total: 47.5 pointsChance of 48 or more points combined	50%	50.5%	0.5 pts

Virginia has stayed between 38% and 63% since Oct 13. Polymarket has 54% and Kalshi 54.5% now.

Virginia Cavaliers: chance to winPolymarketKalshiEach site's price as the sports room checked it

35%40%45%50%55%60%65%Oct 14Oct 16Oct 18Oct 20Oct 22Polymarket 54%Kalshi 54.5%

Both teams play in the ACC, so this game counts toward the conference title.

TEAM	Make the playoff	Win the ACC	Win the national title
DukeBlue Devils	—Not listed	1.4%P 1.4 · K 1*	—Not listed
VirginiaCavaliers	4.5%P 4.5 · K 1*	3%P 3 · K 1*	1%P — · K 1*

* Last trade only: that site has no live price right now, so it is left out of the average. A number in gray comes from last trades alone.