Patriots at Bills

Sunday, October 4 · 1:00 PM ET · Sunday afternoon

NFL · SUNDAY AFTERNOONAFC EAST GAME

AWAYPatriotsNew England25.5%chance to win · Polymarket 25.5% · Kalshi 25.5%

atKICKS OFFIN 2 DAYSSun 1:00 PM ET

HOMEBillsBuffalo74.5%chance to win · Polymarket 74.5% · Kalshi 74.5%

Favorite: Bills, 74.5%Spread: Bills −6.5Total: 48.5The sites agree

The two sites nearly agree

Polymarket and Kalshi are within 1 point of each other on every line here. The biggest difference is on the spread.

MARKET	POLYMARKET	KALSHI	DIFFERENCE
To winChance the Bills win	74.5%	74.5%	Same
Spread: Bills −6.5Chance the Bills win by 7 or more	52.5%	51.5%	1.0 pts
Total: 48.5 pointsChance of 49 or more points combined	51.5%	50.5%	1.0 pts

The Bills have stayed between 72.5% and 74.5% since Oct 1. Both sites have them at 74.5% now.

Buffalo Bills: chance to winPolymarketKalshiEach site's price as the sports room checked it

70%75%80%Oct 2Both 74.5%

Both teams play in the AFC East, so this game moves the division race directly.

TEAM	Make the playoffs	Win the AFC East	Win the AFC	Win the Super Bowl
PatriotsNew England	44.3%P 46.1 · K 42.5	15.5%P 16.5 · K 14.5	4.8%P 5 · K 4.5	1.7%P 2 · K 1.5
BillsBuffalo	91%P 89.5 · K 92.5	78.8%P 78 · K 79.5	23%P 23.5 · K 22.5	13%P 13.5 · K 12.5