PMN Topic Guide
Macro, inflation, rates, commodities, and economic event coverage built around live market signals.
No. PMN explains what prediction markets are pricing and why that signal may matter editorially.
Economic markets can reprice after scheduled data, policy comments, energy moves, and changes in broader risk appetite.
Economy / 2 MIN READ
Earlier this weekPrediction markets now price a 53 percent chance Elon Musk will post 160 to 179 tweets this week on X.
Traders lean no; down 53pp from 53% YES at publication.
Economy / 2 MIN READ
Earlier this weekPolymarket traders now assign just 1.7 percent odds to the Tesla chief posting 100 to 119 times this week.
Traders lean no; down 2pp from 98% NO at publication.
Economy / 1 MIN READ
Earlier this weekPrediction markets now assign a 57 percent chance that West Texas Intermediate will touch $80 per barrel before July ends.
Traders lean no; down 24pp from 57% YES at publication.
Economy / 2 MIN READ
Earlier this weekPrediction markets now assign 36 percent odds to a greater-than-25-basis-point December 2027 hike, even as economists forecast cuts.
Market is split; up 4pp from 64% NO at publication.
Economy / 1 MIN READ
WTI crude oil traded near its lowest level since before the US-Iran war began, as diplomatic progress and resumed tanker traffic eased supply fears.
Traders lean no.
Economy / 1 MIN READ
A SpaceX moon launch and new attention from the SEC and DOJ coincided with a surge in Elon Musk's social media activity over a three-day window.
Traders lean yes.