PMN Topic Guide
International affairs, conflict, diplomacy, and geopolitical risk coverage through prediction market movement.
Yes. PMN treats them as live risk signals, not confirmed facts, especially around conflict or diplomacy.
Coverage emphasizes context, wording, uncertainty, and public source support instead of treating odds as certainty.
World / 1 MIN READ
Still liveTransit calls data from the monitoring platform will serve as the official measure of shipping normalization through the strategic waterway.
Traders lean no; down 7pp from 93% NO at publication.
World / 1 MIN READ
Still liveThe International Monetary Fund's maritime tracking tool will serve as the official arbiter for shipping recovery in the critical waterway.
Traders lean no; down 41pp from 55% NO at publication.
World / 2 MIN READ
Still liveBeijing ramps up naval deployments and revises military rhetoric as Taipei completes blockade drills. The deadline for a potential clash looms in 2027.
Traders lean no; down 3pp from 91% NO at publication.
Prediction Market Network
World
U.S.-Iran Military Confrontation Remains Unresolved Amid Ongoing Tensions
Market signal brief
World / 1 MIN READ
Still liveUncertainty persists over potential U.S. military action in Iran through 2027
Traders lean no; down 16pp from 69% NO at publication.
World / 1 MIN READ
The agreement, reached this week, outlines next steps but stops short of a final nuclear deal sought by the end of May.
Traders lean no.
World / 1 MIN READ
The White House weighs a proposal from Iran to reopen the strait, after a monthslong military campaign and diplomatic push.
Traders lean no.