Morena’s succession process in Zacatecas has erupted into an internal dispute after Verónica DÃaz Robles emerged as the party’s choice to organize its campaign toward the 2027 governor election, despite public surveys that had placed federal deputy Ulises MejÃa Haro in front. The reported decision triggered objections from allies of MejÃa and senator-on-leave José Narro Céspedes, who questioned how party officials reconciled the outcome with polling that consistently showed different results. The role is not yet the formal gubernatorial nomination, but Morena has used organizing appointments as a decisive step in previous races, giving the selection immediate weight in a state the governing party is trying to retain.
The argument centers on what the surveys actually measured and how much authority party leaders retained to interpret them. An Enkoll survey for El Universal, conducted in August among 1,204 registered voters, placed MejÃa at the head of Morena’s internal preferences. A separate Alius survey put him at 36.4%, followed by Labor Party senator Geovanna Bañuelos at 21.3% and DÃaz at 20.8%. El PaÃs reported Wednesday that critics inside the coalition believed MejÃa led the exercises by as much as 10 points over Bañuelos and roughly 20 over DÃaz. Supporters of the selection can still argue that electoral competitiveness, coalition balance, gender rules and internal organization matter alongside a single polling result, but the party has not publicly resolved the contradiction.
Prediction-market pricing reversed sharply as news of the selection spread. On Polymarket, the contract tied to a MejÃa victory fell to about 11%, a decline of roughly 54 percentage points in one day, while the DÃaz outcome rose to about 66%, up about 45 points. The event recorded around $2,700 in activity over the latest day. Those probabilities reflect traders’ assessment of the reported party decision, not an official candidate registration or the final election result, and the relatively modest activity leaves room for abrupt changes as Morena clarifies its process.
The dispute creates two immediate tests. First, Morena’s national leadership must explain the methodology well enough to prevent losing organizers or voters who believe the surveys were overridden. Second, DÃaz must turn an internal appointment into a broader coalition capable of surviving a formal nomination process and a general election. Zacatecas remains a competitive arena where local alliances and security concerns can outweigh national party strength. MejÃa could accept another role, challenge the process from inside the movement or continue building an independent base; each option would reshape the race. The next concrete signals will be a detailed party announcement, public commitments from the losing aspirants and the formal timetable for selecting the nominee. Until then, the reported choice has shifted the contest but has not settled it.
