Polymarket traders now price just a 4% chance that West Texas Intermediate crude oil will hit $90 per barrel in July, as the contract enters its final hours with WTI futures trading in the low $80s. The implied probability has fallen 25.5 percentage points in the past 24 hours, reflecting the market's assessment that a sudden $5–$10 rally is improbable given current supply and demand dynamics.
WTI front-month futures were quoted at $82.67 on July 29, according to WSJ market data, with an intraday range of $79.92 to $83.34. The September contract settled at $84.90 on the same day, still well below the $90 threshold. Earlier in the month, the broader Polymarket event on July WTI prices had the leading outcome at $70, suggesting the market never viewed $90 as a base case. Even the Sigmanomics monthly statistical series placed US WTI crude at $69.60 per barrel for July, underscoring the gap. The July contract itself has already expired, and the focus has shifted to the August and September futures, which are also trading below $85.
Geopolitical risks remain elevated, with the Strait of Hormuz traffic severely restricted amid ongoing conflict between the US and Iran that has widened to Jordan and Egypt. An anti-cartel operation is also likely before a July 31 deadline. Yet these supply-disruption fears have not translated into the kind of price spike needed to push WTI to $90. Brent crude, the global benchmark, was at $76.80 on July 10, further illustrating that the broader oil complex remains under pressure. The Cushing, Oklahoma storage hub, the physical delivery point for WTI futures, has seen inventories at comfortable levels, according to recent EIA data, dampening the case for a squeeze. The prompt-month spread for WTI has remained in contango, signaling no immediate physical tightness.
With the contract expiring on August 1, traders are pricing a 95.75% chance that WTI stays below $90 in July. The market's low probability reflects both the physical reality of ample supply and the difficulty of engineering a sharp rally in a matter of days. The market's structure suggests that traders see no catalyst for a sharp move higher in the remaining hours. The low probability is consistent with the physical market, where US crude production remains near record levels and OPEC+ has spare capacity. For now, the $90 level remains a distant target, even as geopolitical headlines continue to roil the energy landscape. The Polymarket contract has seen $97,895 in volume over the past 24 hours, indicating active interest but no conviction in a breakout.
