Live market ticker. Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?: 69 percent; Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?: 60 percent; Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?: 80 percent; US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?: 32 percent; Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 350m?: 81 percent