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Live Event Board
Event clusters from Polymarket and Kalshi with active market counts, volume, liquidity cues, and the highest-signal contracts inside each event.
Events
31
Markets
114
Volume
$33.3M
Sources
5/26
Poly/Kalshi
Markets / 1 market
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026?
0.0pp / $5.8M
1%
Volume
$15.7M
Markets / 3 markets
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?
-0.9pp / $291K
2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May?
+1.9pp / $227K
5%
Volume
$7.8M
Markets / 1 market
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
-3.9pp / $509K
4%
Volume
$5.8M
Ranked by activity
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
Volume
$3.1M
Open Interest
n/a
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 26?
-34.4pp / $423K
0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 26?
+6.5pp / $450K
100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 26?
-2.2pp / $769K
0%
If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) before 1 PM EDT is above 76499.99 at 1 PM EDT on May 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Hourly / BTC
Volume
$583K
Open Interest
$215K
Bitcoin price on May 26, 2026?
No 24h move / $104K
40%
Bitcoin price on May 26, 2026?
No 24h move / $99K
12%
Bitcoin price on May 26, 2026?
No 24h move / $65K
4%
If the highest temperature recorded in Central Park, New York for May 26, 2026 as reported by the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), is between 81-82°, then the market resolves to Yes.
Daily temperature
Volume
$82K
Open Interest
$55K
Will the **high temp in NYC** be 79-80° on May 26, 2026?
+27.0pp / $17K
67%
Will the **high temp in NYC** be 77-78° on May 26, 2026?
-26.0pp / $17K
8%
Will the **high temp in NYC** be 81-82° on May 26, 2026?
+10.0pp / $19K
24%
If the end-of-day S&P 500 index value on May 26, 2026 is above 7499.9999, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indices / Markets
Volume
$45K
Open Interest
$29K
Will the S&P 500 be above 7499.9999 on May 26, 2026 at 4pm EDT?
No 24h move / $15K
64%
Will the S&P 500 be above 7524.9999 on May 26, 2026 at 4pm EDT?
No 24h move / $13K
22%
Will the S&P 500 be above 7549.9999 on May 26, 2026 at 4pm EDT?
No 24h move / $7K
6%
If the total runs scored by Royal Challengers Bengaluru is above 223.5 in the Gujarat Titans vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru IPL cricket match originally scheduled for May 26, 2026 at 10:00 AM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.
Volume
$39K
Open Interest
$25K
Will Royal Challengers Bengaluru score over 223.5 runs?
No 24h move / $19K
100%
Will Gujarat Titans score over 223.5 runs?
No 24h move / $7K
8%
Will Royal Challengers Bengaluru score over 193.5 runs?
No 24h move / $7K
100%
If a qualifying event does not occur , then the market resolves to Yes.
Volume
$31K
Open Interest
$27K
What will JD Vance say during Roundtable on Anti-Fraud Initiatives?
No 24h move / $2K
64%
What will JD Vance say during Roundtable on Anti-Fraud Initiatives?
No 24h move / $4K
9%
What will JD Vance say during Roundtable on Anti-Fraud Initiatives?
No 24h move / $2K
30%
If average regular gas prices for United States are strictly greater than $4.460 on May 27, 2026 according to AAA, then the market resolves to Yes.
Volume
$15K
Open Interest
$12K
Will average **gas prices** be above $4.475?
No 24h move / $2K
35%
Will average **gas prices** be above $4.450?
No 24h move / $3K
98%
Will average **gas prices** be above $4.480?
No 24h move / $2K
18%
If US ISM services PMI for May 2026 is above 55.5 , then the market resolves to Yes.
Volume
$12K
Open Interest
$8K
Will US ISM services PMI for May 2026 be above 55.5?
No 24h move / $5K
3%
Will US ISM services PMI for May 2026 be above 56.0?
No 24h move / $3K
4%
Will US ISM services PMI for May 2026 be above 56.5?
No 24h move / $4K
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any line of either Nord Stream 1 or Nord Stream 2 delivers natural gas to Germany or any EU member state in commercial quantities at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". "Commercial quantities" refers to sustained, measurable flows of gas intended for end-user distribution. Test flows, pressure tests, or symbolic gas transfers not tied to actual supply operations will not count. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$11K
Open Interest
n/a
Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027?
-0.8pp / $94
4%
If the highest temperature recorded in Central Park, New York for May 27, 2026 as reported by the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), is greater than 84°, then the market resolves to Yes.
Daily temperature
Volume
$9K
Open Interest
$7K
Will the **high temp in NYC** be 83-84° on May 27, 2026?
No 24h move / $1K
34%
Will the **high temp in NYC** be 77-78° on May 27, 2026?
No 24h move / $212
2%
Will the **high temp in NYC** be 79-80° on May 27, 2026?
No 24h move / $1K
3%
If the highest temperature recorded in Los Angeles Airport, CA for May 27, 2026 as reported by the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), is less than 62°, then the market resolves to Yes.
Volume
$5K
Open Interest
$5K
Will the **high temp in LA** be 66-67° on May 27, 2026?
No 24h move / $1K
43%
Will the **high temp in LA** be 62-63° on May 27, 2026?
No 24h move / $2K
4%
Will the **high temp in LA** be <62° on May 27, 2026?
No 24h move / $2K
1%
If the minimum temperature recorded at Philadelphia for May 27, 2026, is between 59-60° fahrenheit according to the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), then the market resolves to Yes.
Volume
$4K
Open Interest
$4K
Will the minimum temperature be <59° on May 27, 2026?
No 24h move / $953
1%
Will the minimum temperature be 59-60° on May 27, 2026?
No 24h move / $714
1%
Will the minimum temperature be 61-62° on May 27, 2026?
No 24h move / $630
2%
If the maximum temperature recorded at Seattle for May 27, 2026, is greater than 78° fahrenheit according to the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), then the market resolves to Yes.
Volume
$4K
Open Interest
$3K
Will the maximum temperature be >78° on May 27, 2026?
No 24h move / $3K
1%
Will the maximum temperature be 73-74° on May 27, 2026?
No 24h move / $1K
40%
Will the maximum temperature be 71-72° on May 27, 2026?
No 24h move / $590
20%
If US nonfarm payrolls for May 2026 is above 240,000 , then the market resolves to Yes.
Volume
$4K
Open Interest
$1K
Will US nonfarm payrolls for May 2026 be above 240K?
No 24h move / $4K
4%
If the maximum temperature recorded at New Orleans for May 27, 2026, is greater than 90° fahrenheit according to the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), then the market resolves to Yes.
Volume
$4K
Open Interest
$4K
Will the maximum temperature be >90° on May 27, 2026?
No 24h move / $4K
2%
If the highest temperature recorded in Denver, CO for May 27, 2026 as reported by the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), is less than 71°, then the market resolves to Yes.
Volume
$3K
Open Interest
$3K
Will the **high temp in Denver** be 71-72° on May 27, 2026?
No 24h move / $590
31%
Will the **high temp in Denver** be <71° on May 27, 2026?
No 24h move / $2K
38%
Will the **high temp in Denver** be >78° on May 27, 2026?
No 24h move / $1K
1%
If the highest temperature recorded at Chicago Midway, IL for May 27, 2026, is greater than 86° according to the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), then the market resolves to Yes.
Volume
$3K
Open Interest
$3K
Will the high temp in Chicago be <79° on May 27, 2026?
No 24h move / $1K
2%
Will the high temp in Chicago be >86° on May 27, 2026?
No 24h move / $2K
22%
If the maximum temperature recorded at Dallas for May 27, 2026, is greater than 86° fahrenheit according to the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), then the market resolves to Yes.
Volume
$3K
Open Interest
$2K
Will the maximum temperature be >86° on May 27, 2026?
No 24h move / $2K
16%
Will the maximum temperature be 79-80° on May 27, 2026?
No 24h move / $627
17%
If the maximum temperature recorded at Houston for May 27, 2026, is greater than 86° fahrenheit according to the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), then the market resolves to Yes.
Volume
$2K
Open Interest
$2K
Will the maximum temperature be >86° on May 27, 2026?
No 24h move / $2K
1%
If the maximum temperature recorded at Phoenix for May 27, 2026, is greater than 98° fahrenheit according to the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), then the market resolves to Yes.
Volume
$2K
Open Interest
$2K
Will the maximum temperature be >98° on May 27, 2026?
No 24h move / $1K
1%
Will the maximum temperature be <91° on May 27, 2026?
No 24h move / $665
1%
If Renewal is said by any Costco Wholesale Corporation representative (including the operator of the call) during the next Costco Wholesale Corporation earnings call (including the Q+A), then the market resolves to Yes.
Volume
$2K
Open Interest
$1K
What will Costco Wholesale Corporation say during their next earnings call?
No 24h move / $633
99%
What will Costco Wholesale Corporation say during their next earnings call?
No 24h move / $1K
98%
If the maximum temperature recorded at Oklahoma City for May 27, 2026, is greater than 82° fahrenheit according to the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), then the market resolves to Yes.
Volume
$1K
Open Interest
$1K
Will the maximum temperature be >82° on May 27, 2026?
No 24h move / $872
8%
Will the maximum temperature be 81-82° on May 27, 2026?
No 24h move / $594
11%
If the maximum temperature recorded at Atlanta for May 27, 2026, is greater than 87° fahrenheit according to the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), then the market resolves to Yes.
Volume
$1K
Open Interest
$928
Will the maximum temperature be >87° on May 27, 2026?
No 24h move / $618
3%
If the maximum temperature recorded at Las Vegas for May 27, 2026, is greater than 84° fahrenheit according to the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), then the market resolves to Yes.
Volume
$1K
Open Interest
$1K
Will the maximum temperature be >84° on May 27, 2026?
No 24h move / $987
2%
If the minimum temperature recorded at Miami for May 27, 2026, is greater than 81° fahrenheit according to the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), then the market resolves to Yes.
Volume
$892
Open Interest
$762
Will the minimum temperature be >81° on May 27, 2026?
No 24h move / $892
3%
If the maximum temperature recorded at Boston for May 27, 2026, is less than 81° fahrenheit according to the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), then the market resolves to Yes.
Volume
$794
Open Interest
$594
Will the maximum temperature be <81° on May 27, 2026?
No 24h move / $794
2%
If the maximum temperature recorded at Minneapolis for May 27, 2026, is greater than 93° fahrenheit according to the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), then the market resolves to Yes.
Volume
$780
Open Interest
$780
Will the maximum temperature be >93° on May 27, 2026?
No 24h move / $780
2%
If the minimum temperature recorded at New York City for May 27, 2026, is between 59-60° fahrenheit according to the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), then the market resolves to Yes.
Volume
$772
Open Interest
$632
Will the minimum temperature be 59-60° on May 27, 2026?
No 24h move / $772
3%