Markets grouped around what is actually trading

Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?

+0.7pp / $5K

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?

-25.0pp / $65K

Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?

+28.0pp / $56K

Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?

-3.1pp / $23K

Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?

-12.5pp / $49K

Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?

-7.0pp / $27K

Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?

-12.3pp / $6K

Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2027?

+1.5pp / $4K

Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $1.25T and $1.5T?

-4.3pp / $7K

Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be less than $1T?

-0.6pp / $5K

Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be at least $2.5T?

-0.1pp / $3K

Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 31, 2026?

-61.0pp / $43K

Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?

No 24h move / $393

Will Moonshot have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?

-0.3pp / $140

Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?

+2.5pp / $617

Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026?

+1.5pp / $4K

Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 9, 2026?

+0.4pp / $230