Michigan State at Wisconsin

Saturday, October 3 · 12:30 PM ET · Saturday early game

COLLEGE FOOTBALL · SATURDAY EARLY GAMEBIG TEN GAME

AWAYMichigan StateSpartans23.5%chance to win · Polymarket 23.5% · Kalshi 23.5%

atKICKS OFFIN 1 DAYSat 12:30 PM ET

HOMEWisconsinBadgers76.5%chance to win · Polymarket 76.5% · Kalshi 76.5%

Favorite: Wisconsin, 76.5%Spread: Wisconsin −8.5Total: 43.5The sites agree

The two sites nearly agree

Polymarket and Kalshi are within 0.5 points of each other on every line they both price live. The biggest difference is on the total.

MARKET	POLYMARKET	KALSHI	DIFFERENCE
To winChance Wisconsin wins	76.5%	76.5%	Same
Spread: Wisconsin −8.5Chance Wisconsin wins by 9 or more	52.5%	—	—
Total: 43.5 pointsChance of 44 or more points combined	49%	49.5%	0.5 pts

Wisconsin has stayed between 76.5% and 77.5% since Oct 1. Both sites have it at 76.5% now.

Wisconsin Badgers: chance to winPolymarketKalshiEach site's price as the sports room checked it

75%80%85%Oct 2Both 76.5%

Both teams play in the Big Ten, so this game counts toward the conference title.

TEAM	Make the playoff	Win the Big Ten	Win the national title
Michigan StateSpartans	—Not listed	4.6%P 4.6 · K 1*	—Not listed
WisconsinBadgers	—Not listed	2.4%P 3.4 · K 1.5	—Not listed

* Last trade only: that site has no live price right now, so it is left out of the average. A number in gray comes from last trades alone.