Hamas Disarmament Deal Odds Surge to 93.5%

Prediction markets now price a 91.35% chance that U.S. forces will conduct a direct anti-cartel operation on foreign soil by Friday.

Prediction markets now price a 93.5% probability that Hamas will agree to disarm by December 31, a 58.5-point surge in 24 hours following President Donald Trump's announcement of a Gaza disarmament deal. The implied probability, based on $493,803 in trading volume on Polymarket, reflects the market's assessment that a political commitment—rather than completed weapons handover—satisfies the question's terms. The move came after Trump said the Board of Peace reached a 'historic agreement' for the 'complete disarmament' of Hamas, though neither Hamas nor Israel immediately confirmed acceptance of the roadmap.

The reported plan envisions a staged process: heavy weapons, tunnels, and other military infrastructure would be addressed over 200 to 350 days, according to officials cited by Reuters and NPR. A leaked eight-month timeline from the Times of Israel shows Hamas handing over heavy weapons by days 30-90, with final verification completed by days 91-250. The market's high probability suggests traders view the announcement as a credible political framework, even if physical disarmament extends well beyond the Dec. 31 deadline.

However, significant hurdles remain. The BBC reported that Hamas previously rejected an earlier demilitarization proposal and insisted on full Israeli withdrawal, international protective forces, reopened crossings, and expanded aid deliveries before entering phase-two talks. Al Jazeera noted that Israel had not confirmed acceptance of the new roadmap, and the Times of Israel reported Hamas was given until week's end to accept the proposal. The market question hinges on a verbal or written agreement by Dec. 31, not completed disarmament, but the gap between Trump's announcement and formal confirmation from both parties leaves the outcome uncertain.

The 93.5% probability implies a 6.5% chance that no agreement materializes, a scenario that would require Hamas to maintain its stated position of rejecting demilitarization without full Israeli withdrawal. With the market closing Dec. 31, the next 24-48 hours—including the reported deadline for Hamas to respond—will test whether the surge is justified or overpriced.