World / 1 MIN READ
Despite a brief lift in June, the blockade was reimposed in July, and no fresh announcement has been made ahead of the August 7 deadline.
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Current live odds
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?
World / 1 MIN READ
Earlier this weekA Gulf-backed proposal for voluntary payments undermines Iran's mandatory toll plans, leaving the October 31 deadline in doubt.
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World / 1 MIN READ
The president said talks would start Monday, but Iran said it is not in negotiations with the United States.
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Still liveThe exchange of fire raised fears of a broader regional war as the UN called for both sides to de-escalate.
© 2026 Prediction Market Network. Market data references Polymarket and Kalshi and may change rapidly.
The implied probability of the US announcing an end to its naval blockade of Iran before the August 7 deadline stands at 15.4% on Polymarket, reflecting deep uncertainty after a summer of shifting policy. The market closes Thursday, and traders are weighing conflicting reports from June and July that have swung the odds sharply. Over the past 24 hours, the probability has fallen 24 percentage points on $593,588 in volume, as recent reporting that the blockade remains in effect has dampened expectations.
On June 18, US Central Command said it had ended the blockade on vessels traveling to and from Iranian ports after a memorandum of understanding was signed. A CGTN report that day confirmed that all maritime interdiction operations had ceased. But the détente was short-lived. By July 11, Reuters reported that US officials were again demanding free, toll-free transit through the Strait of Hormuz as ceasefire talks collapsed. President Trump declared the ceasefire "OVER" that same day, and the New York Times reported on July 13 that he ordered the blockade re-established after fighting resumed.
Subsequent reporting confirmed the blockade remained in effect through late July. NPR reported on July 26 that the US military said the reimposed blockade was still in place, and Al Jazeera reported on July 18 that the US had reinforced its naval presence off Iran's southern ports after renewed strikes. No official announcement of a second lift has been made since the June 18 statement.
For the market to resolve "Yes," a new official US announcement explicitly stating the blockade has ended must occur before the close on August 7. Given the lack of such a statement and the consistent July reporting that the blockade is active, the low probability appears justified. Traders should monitor official channels closely in the final hours, but the evidence suggests an announcement is unlikely.