Markets Price 28 Percent Chance Blockade Announcement Comes by Thursday

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Prediction markets assign a 28 percent probability that the United States will formally announce an end to its Iranian blockade by July 31, up 16 percentage points in the past 24 hours on volume of $97,179. The question hinges on whether a public U.S. government declaration has already occurred or whether additional clarification is required before the market closes Thursday at midnight.

On June 18, U.S. Central Command announced that American forces had ended their blockade on vessels navigating to and from Iranian ports as part of a ceasefire and 60-day negotiation framework. President Trump signed an agreement the same day waiving sanctions and explicitly lifting the blockade, with the Strait of Hormuz expected to return to prewar traffic levels within 30 days as mines were cleared. Iran's state news agency IRNA reported a memorandum of understanding on June 17 in which both nations agreed to end fighting and lift maritime blockades in the Gulf.

The original blockade took effect April 13 at 10 a.m. Eastern Time under a presidential order executed by CENTCOM, targeting all ships traveling to and from Iranian ports. On July 13, Trump publicly announced a reinstatement of the blockade and declared the U.S. would seek a 20 percent reimbursement on cargo shipped through the Strait of Hormuz, following Tehran's claim it had closed the waterway. Subsequent reporting indicated oil tankers began moving freely through the strait after the June agreement took effect, with commercial ships granted passage without charge for 60 days.

The market's resolution criteria may turn on whether the June 18 CENTCOM statement and signed agreement constitute a sufficient "announcement" or whether traders anticipate a separate formal declaration before the July 31 deadline. The 28 percent probability reflects uncertainty over how the market's resolving authority will interpret the existing public record, with six days remaining until the contract expires.