The International Monetary Fund's Portwatch platform will serve as the official data source for determining whether Strait of Hormuz traffic has returned to normal by July 31, according to the resolution terms for a related prediction market.
Portwatch, the IMF's maritime trade monitoring tool, tracks vessel transits through the strait via its public dashboard and downloadable datasets. The platform provides real-time and historical data on shipping flows that pass through the narrow waterway between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman.
The IMF's Portwatch data will be the basis for assessing whether traffic levels have recovered to their pre-disruption baseline, a key question for global oil markets and supply chains. The Strait of Hormuz handles about one-fifth of the world's oil transit.
The strait's traffic has faced sustained disruption since late June 2026, triggered by an escalation in regional hostilities. The IMF's tracking will provide an objective benchmark as shipping companies, insurers, and governments evaluate the security situation.
A final determination on traffic normalcy will be made on July 31, using the IMF Portwatch data to compare current transit volumes against historical patterns.
