Watch today's Prediction Market Network video brief above.
Hormuz Deal in Doubt — Oman's trying to broker peace in the Strait of Hormuz, but Iran wants the blockade lifted and compensation upfront. Markets are pricing only an 11% chance of a deal—so don't hold your breath. Full story: https://www.predictionmarketnetwork.com/article/oman-led-diplomatic-push-on-strait-of-hormuz-faces-wide-gap--339942-20260814
Iran Verification Gaps — The IAEA says it can't track Iran's nukes after war damage, and the market gives just a 5% chance of resolution. That's a proliferation worry with no easy fix. Full story: https://www.predictionmarketnetwork.com/article/iaea-board-warns-iran-verification-lapses-pose-proliferation-665521-20260814
Somaliland Hopes Dim — Somaliland's White House meeting from spring is ancient history now—recognition odds sit at 8%. Looks like that diplomatic momentum evaporated. Full story: https://www.predictionmarketnetwork.com/article/somaliland-leaders-recognition-hopes-stall-after-early-talks-102971-20260814
